CEO Confidence Declined in Q4 2026 as The Conference Board Measure fell to 46, down 6 points from 52 in Q3. The survey found that 41% of CEOs expected economic conditions to worsen over the next six months, compared with 19% in Q3. The Conference Board said the result marked the measure’s lowest level since Q2 2025, according to its Q4 survey release.

The Conference Board Measure, produced with The Business Council, draws on responses from 131 CEOs. The Q4 survey was fielded from September 21 through October 5. A reading below 50 means more respondents viewed conditions negatively than positively, according to the release.

CEO Confidence Declined as Economic Expectations Weakened

Views of current conditions also softened. In Q4, 19% of CEOs said general economic conditions were better than six months earlier, down from 23% in Q3. Meanwhile, 37% said conditions were worse, up from 26%.

Executives gave a weaker assessment of their own industries as well. The share saying industry conditions were better than six months earlier fell to 35% from 43%. The share saying conditions were worse rose to 29% from 23%.

Looking ahead, 13% expected the economy to improve over the next six months, compared with 25% in Q3. The 41% expecting deterioration was up from 19%. For their own industries, 25% anticipated improvement, down from 36%, while 28% expected conditions to worsen, up from 13%.

The findings add to CEO coverage of business planning and leadership decisions, including this report on CEO reinvention.

Hiring and Investment Plans Remained Mixed

Despite weaker economic views, planned investment and hiring did not move in the same direction. More than half of CEOs, 53%, expected to maintain existing capital investment plans, while 36% expected to increase them. The release said 11% expected to revise spending plans downward. Separately, 53% reported no plans to revise capital spending.

On workforce plans, 33% expected to expand employment, slightly below 34% in Q3. The share expecting reductions rose to 31% from 28%, while 36% anticipated no change. The survey also found 61% expected either no hiring problems or no overall problem despite some difficulties in particular areas over the next 12 months.

Wage plans showed a further difference. The release said 57% planned annual increases concentrated in the 3-3.9% range. CEOs planning increases of 4% or more rose to 16% from 9% in the previous quarter. These results describe reported plans, not completed hiring, spending or pay changes.

Leadership transitions can also affect how organizations plan, as discussed in this coverage of CEO succession.

CEOs Ranked Cybersecurity, AI and Geopolitical Risks Highly

Among risks respondents rated as high importance, cybersecurity rose to 71% in Q4 from 63% in Q3. AI and new technology reached 64%, up from 58%, while geopolitical risk rose to 58% from 53%. The release identified those as the top three risks and said their intensity increased.

In special questions about AI, 48% expected its greatest measurable value over the next three years to come from productivity and operating-cost reduction. Another 25% selected revenue growth and new business models. On the largest AI-related threat to enterprise value, 40% cited failing to transform the organization fast enough, and 25% cited moving too slowly.

Asked about AI-driven productivity in company plans over the next 3–5 years, 11% selected more than 20%, 24% selected 11-20%, and 32% selected 5-10%. The survey also found cybersecurity threats were the leading AI-related concern, selected by 94% of CEOs. This related CEO strategy coverage examines another executive priority.

The Conference Board’s release presents the results as executives’ reported views and plans during the survey period. It does not establish why confidence changed or predict what companies will do next. The next step for readers is to watch future survey results for whether these expectations and plans change.